Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Updated Causal Loop Diagram

After a short clarification session with Dr Deaton, I was able to complete the diagram as I understand the problem.

I wish there was some other input other than the Public Demand that would help balance this problem. The Public seems to worried about too many things and Congress seems to be ignoring all of them to address this critical area properly.

Here is the new CLD:

Sunday, September 19, 2010

The hard work begins

I may an idiot for attempting this but I figured I might learn something if I try it.

My real life situation is a continuation of the problem I discussed last week. Our national infrastructure is in horrendous shape. The government, who we have put in charge of fixing it, is not doing its job. As I attempt to actually draw the Causal Loop Diagram for this issue I realize it is an extremely complicated system.
The typical mental model is Something Fails - Allocate Funds - Fix it - Repeat
Unfortunately, the real model must be expanded a great deal to even begin to address the issue.
I list three Exogenous variables: The age of the infrastructure, population growth, and the amount of funds available to the government.
The real model must include some measurement of how fast the state of the system is degrading. I chose the survey conducted by the American Society of Civil Engineers. This survey assigns grades to individual pieces, such as bridges and tunnels. The model must also include the politics involved which  I am tracking as 'Public Demand for Improved Systems' as well a way to track the multiplicative effect of aging, poor repairs and materials, and increase use.
One problem I encountered is the fact that I have feedback loops with multiple paths. Is this the correct way to model this problem? Do I need to rethink my variables to eliminate this problem? If anyone has any thoughts, I would appreciate hearing them.
After actually beginning this diagram, I realized that this is an issue that even though it is bad already, it will continue to worsen because all of the feedback except the original mental model, is reinforcing.
Comments anyone? 

Infrastructure Repairs

Monday, September 13, 2010

National infrastructure issues

For more than 30 years the U.S. and individual states have delayed major infrastructure investments. Bridges, sewer and water systems, railroads, and many other major parts of our physical systems throughout the country have been neglected. As they continue to deteriorate, the investment required for repairs goes up. Sometimes these costs escalate exponentially.
There are a couple of variables that might be used to track this problem. Total infrastructure expenditures for repairs versus new construction might be used. Also, using the civil engineering surveys and ratings that are done periodically might be used to track the number of required repairs.
This system has economic (hard) and political (soft) components. The political will required by the public to require government to address these problems requires sacrifice of other services. The repairs(hard) are controlled by industries that compete for tax dollars and political influence(soft). The economic factors include damage(hard) to personal and commercial vehicles, possible loss of life(soft) due to system failure, cost burdens(hard) on cities, utilities, and their customers. The time delay(hard) before these problems are addressed will magnify the problems by not only increasing the costs but by also affecting commerce because of closed bridges and roads, limits on growth due to sewer and water system constraints, new industry going elsewhere because lack of good internet, reliable power, or available tax incentives to build new plants.

The repairs will be made by the government. The public affects how important this is to the government. Repair companies have lobbyists. Delay makes the problem worse. The damage creates loss of tax revenue because these issues affect the economy overall now and more later if catastrophe strikes.